Iran, Israel and Trump

Everything is going to plan...

Note: I have been absent for a few months but I have a lot of posts lined up for the rest of 2025 so stay tuned!

A lot has happened since my last post. The world, if you read headlines and breathless social media content, seems quite chaotic. Yet in some sense nothing very surprising has happened. In a previous post about what to expect from Trump’s second term, I made one key point: the US ‘deep state’ was likely to find ways to use Trump to their advantage. And, furthermore, that all his key lieutenants (Gabbard, Rubio, Musk, Vance) have been positioned to control and direct Trump’s whims rather than implement them. The example I gave of this from his first term was the assassination of the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qasem Soleimani.

In light of that analysis, Israel’s recent attack on Iran - approved beforehand by Trump - is no surprise at all. The Iranians were caught by surprise because they were busy in negotiations with the US and its European allies for a new nuclear non-proliferation treaty. But this is the (evil?) genius of the current approach of the US deep state: it uses one grouping within the US, or indeed its trans-Atlantic alliances, to dupe its enemies¹ into a false sense of security. This also worked with Ukraine, when Russia was duped into pulling back from its initial direct assault on Kyiv only for Ukraine to do a U-turn (facilitated by the pathological liar, then UK prime minister, Boris Johnson) on the agreement.²

In some ways the most surprising thing about geopolitical developments over the last few years is how easily major powers like Russia and China have been duped by (what seem to me) fairly obvious US attempts at deception. That is also, in part, how Syria was recently taken over by a religous extremist working as a proxy for the United States in the Middle East. Russia has also been repeatedly duped by Turkish president Erdogan, who has played doublegames with almost every major power over the years but ultimately knows his survival (political and personal) depends on doing what the US deep state tells him to. Russia is also being duped in BRICS, China is being duped in the Middle East…but more on all of that soon.

What is happening with Israel and Iran is that the US [by which I always mean the US deep state] and some of its Western allies are using Israel to do the ‘dirty work’ (i.e. violation of international law, committing of potential war crimes) they want in Iran. And this has always been the primary foundation for US support for Israel, as explained by none other than Joe Biden:

Israel’s assassination of key Iranian leaders and scientists is actually a strategy it has been following, with overt or covert US approval, for decades. I suspect the death of the last Iranian prime minister, Ebrahim Raisi, and his foreign minister in a helicopter crash was an Israeli operation quietly approved by the Biden administration. The Israeli intelligence operation that used exploding pagers to kill and injure dozens of Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon was a recent illustration of its capacity to conduct highly sophisticated assassinations.³

Those readers who have been following my posts here for some time might complain that in some previous posts [such as this one] I had also argued that the US was slowly turning its back on Israel. I stand by that theory and there is no contradiction with recent events. The US is using Israel, and Netanyahu in particular, to do dirty work that no-one else can do: there is no other country that has the military capacity, internal political support and willingness to violate international law to attack Iran. Well, other than the US itself of course where political support can be manufactured or ignored. However, after the effect of the war on Iraq on the reputations of US intelligence agencies, military and political leaders, it is far more preferable for the US deep state to have plausible deniability and keep its own hands clean.

The current situation is a win-win for the US deep state which wants the Iranian ‘regime’ overthrown and also Israel’s current, extreme rightwing Zionist leadership removed and potentially prosecuted. Everyone else, whether Palestinians, Iranians or Israelis (like Ukrainians) is just collateral damage. As others have noted, Iran is the last country in the Middle East on the list that Republican neocons made before invading Iraq:

[full video from Democracy Now here]

It took longer than five years, but whether through Bush Jr (Iraq, Afghanistan), or Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama (Libya, Yemen, Somalia), or Biden (Lebanon/Hezbollah, Syria), everything is going to plan… When originally revealing the list of 7 countries, Wesley Clark instead pointed his finger at Pakistan, Egypt and Saudia Arabia, but the US — under both Democrats and Republicans — has instead chosen to establish close alliances with these countries despite two of them being outright dictatorships.⁴

The claims from some commentators that Trump would be genuinely anti-war, restrain the deep state, or restrain warmongering by US proxies has turned out, as I predicted, to be hopelessly misplaced. And contrary to some recent rhetoric, US (deep state) hegemony is stronger than ever - more on that soon.

1. I use this term to refer to those the deep state designates enemies of the United States. That should not be taken to mean I agree with such terminology or designation. In particular, it has become very clear for decades that the deep state does not care much about the well-being of US citizens, even though that is used as a rhetorical smokescreen.

2. Reports on this have either been ignored in the ‘mainstream’ English language press, or treated as propaganda. But various leaks over the last three years have largely corroborated the key facts.

3. This has been going on for decades, but only recently has been acknowledged in the press (https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/17/exploding-pagers-israel-history-complex-attacks-00179748). Likely because the tide is turning against Israel - as I have written in other posts.

4. Since both the Democrats and Republicans both ultimately are directed by the ‘deep state’, it should not be surprising that they ultimately pursue the same objectives. It is often just the rhetoric or the methods that are different, mostly to preserve the facade of democratic political contestation.