The Key to Understanding the 2024 Elections: Part I

Thirty years ago South Africans voted for the first time in a democratic election. In slightly more than a month’s time the seventh such election will take place. I have been meaning to write a series of pieces on the dynamics preceding these elections. Those will provide the foundation stone for my core hypothesis about what will happen and why. But time is short and so, for those subscribers who are interested, in this piece I present what I believe to be the key to understanding what is happening and what will happen. If you understand this, then many other things that seem otherwise inexplicable begin to make sense. In particular, it provides a very direct answer to one of the most important questions that has been asked: ‘will the ANC stay in power’. And it is striking that analysis of this crucial issue has been almost entirely omitted from media coverage and public commentary.

So what is that key insight? Read on or subscribe to find out.